America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On February 4, 2014 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Continued to Improve in January.” The subtitle is “Index improves for third consecutive month.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index improved slightly for the month of January, climbing to -16 from -19 in December. Although a disheartening jobs report and steep stock market losses negatively affected …
Doug Short had a blog post of January 31 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Little Changed“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted: _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX at 1775.49 as this post is written
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the fourth quarter of 2013, and were last updated as of January 30, 2014. As one can see, two of the three measures are at all-time …
I found President Obama’s State of the Union Address (transcript from the Wall Street Journal) last night to contain some noteworthy comments. While I could comment extensively on many parts of the speech, for now I will indicate excerpts that I found most relevant with regard to the economic situation, and may comment upon them at a future …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through December, last updated on January 28. This value is 229,319 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …
With regard to our current economic situation, my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 32 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near …
I have written a variety of posts concerning “deflationary pressures” and deflation as I continue to believe that deflationary conditions are on the horizon, and that such deflationary conditions will cause, as well as accompany, inordinate economic hardship. [note: to clarify, for purposes of this discussion, when I mention “deflation” I am referring to the CPI …
This post is the latest update to a series of blog posts seen on the CalculatedRisk.com blog. The original blog post of April 12, 2010, is titled “Recession Measures.” In it, Bill McBride discussed key measures that the NBER uses to determine recoveries, and posted four charts. Here are those charts, updated in his January 18, 2014 post titled …
I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 55 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable. These …