America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
One of the critical issues that has arisen from the Financial Crisis and its aftermath was why didn’t economists foresee the Crisis? While I believe there are many reasons for this, some complex, it is interesting to read of reasons issued by one of today’s foremost economists, Raghuram Rajan, in his February 5 2011 blog …
The following is from the Minutes of The Federal Open Market Committee of January 25-26, 2011, the Summary of Economic Projections. As stated: “In conjunction with the January 25–26, 2011, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, all of whom participate …
The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published February 14, 2011. The headline is “Consumer and Business Spending to Spur Expanding U.S. Economy.” I found this excerpt from the article to be notable: “Since late last summer, the economy appears to have strengthened considerably. The economists put the risk of a return to …
For a variety of reasons, I believe the economic forecasts previous to and during the “Financial Crisis” of late ’08 – early ’09 deserve scrutiny. I have assembled a variety of the more notable forecasts and opinions of the period in a document titled “Predictions.” Additionally, I would like to highlight the August 2008 Wall …
On December 27, I wrote a post about the latest Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey and the Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey. Subsequent to that post, the Conference Board released its 4th Quarter CEO Confidence Survey. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 62, up from 50 in the third quarter. An …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 27, 2011: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: …
The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published January 14, 2011. The headline is “Economists Optimistic On Growth.” I found a variety of topics seen in the Q&A (spreadsheet tab) to be interesting, including questions on “Grading Central Bankers” and “QE2”. The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following: GDP: full-year …
On December 14 the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Survey was released for the 4th quarter. The December Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey was also released on December 14. Both contain a variety of statistics regarding how executives view business and economic conditions. In the CEO survey, of particular interest is the CEO Economic …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of December 20, 2010: – The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: …
The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published December 13, 2010. I found a couple of excerpts, seen below, to be especially notable: “The economists now see stronger expansion in the first half of 2011, with growth picking up speed as the year progresses. For the year, they expect GDP will rise 3%. …