Another Forecast Mentioning “Double-Dip” Possibility

Goldman Sachs yesterday came out with a new forecast on the S&P500 price as well as operating earnings, as seen on CNBC.com here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/31774313 I found the following phrase interesting; as this is another forecast that mentions the possibility of a “double-dip” recession in the future: “Goldman’s current economic view is for below-trend growth through …

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Laura Tyson on Economic Forecasting

I recently ran across a quote from Laura Tyson.  It highlights some issues with regard to economic forecasting.  Here is her quote: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31910717/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/ “We are in a balance sheet recession,” said Laura Tyson, a former head of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration who is now one of President Obama’s economic advisors. …

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Economic Forecast From The Federal Reserve

The recently released minutes of the June 23-24 FOMC meeting, found here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20090624.htm stated the following:  “The staff projected that real GDP would decline at a substantially slower rate in the second quarter than it had in the first quarter and then increase in the second half of 2009, though less rapidly than potential output. …

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Recent ECRI Statements

In this post I would like to highlight ECRI and some of its recent statements, after which I will make comments. From a recent (7/14/09) Newsweek story, quoting ECRI, found here: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1481/ “From our vantage point, every week and every month our call is getting stronger, not weaker, including over the last few weeks,” says …

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Some Corporate Views On The Economy

Here are some recent articles in which corporations opine about the economy.  In general, in these articles it is seen that these corporations agree with the current economist consensus that “the worst is over”: U.S. Economy: Manufacturing Shrank Least Since August (Update1) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_.lKyRsGFJg “Car Makers See End to Sales Slide” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124646313562280557.html “FedEx Sees Signs of a Turnaround” …

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More Latest Thoughts from Economists

I’ve recently run across three other economist forecasting items I would like to post.  While I don’t mean to overemphasize these forecasts, I do think they are very significant on a number of fronts; and as such they deserve close monitoring and continual analysis and commentary: First, another economist forecast survey that seems generally in …

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Some Latest Thoughts from Economists

The latest Wall Street Journal economist forecast survey says “the median forecast sees the end of the recession next month.” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124708099206913393.html Meanwhile, I would like to point out this quote from Christina Romer, from a June 28 article, as she mentions the prospects of a “V” recovery: “I still hold out hope it will be a V-shaped …

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Another Interesting New Index

I came across a new index that seems interesting. It is called the Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator.  Details can be found here: http://solutions.dowjones.com/economicsentimentindicator/# The only comment I want to make on it at this time is that I find it of interest as it employs a different methodology.  I plan on monitoring this index. …

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Another “The Worst May Soon Be Over” Forecast

The following story recently (June 25) ran in The Wall Street Journal: “OECD Says The Worst May Soon Be Over For The Global Economy” http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124583299366346443.html This conclusion, that “the worst may soon be over” and that recovery will quickly follow,  seems to be extremely widely held among forecasters, as documented elsewhere (such as the June …

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