America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The May Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on May 14, 2012. The headline is “Economists Forecast Subdued Growth in 2012.” I found the following excerpts to be notable: The economy is expected to add about 185,000 jobs a month over the next year. That rate of growth hasn’t been seen since 2006, …
Last week, ECRI issued a variety of statements and interviews that I found notable. The full list is found at ECRI’s website. Each of these interviews and articles is in some way a reaffirmation of ECRI’s recession call of September 30, 2011 that the U.S. was “tipping into recession,” and ECRI has reaffirmed that view since, …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on May 10, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 5-4-12 on a …
While my overall thoughts on ECRI’s measures and methodologies are complex and lengthy, I would like to highlight one aspect of the ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. charts that I find particularly interesting. From a casual observation standpoint, I have been noticing what I have been referring to as successive “dead cat bounces” in both …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on May 3, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 4-27-12 on a …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on April 26, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 4-20-12 on a …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of April 26, 2012: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the March 22 update titled “Index …