The October Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on October 12, 2012. The headline is “Sluggish Growth Seen Into Next Year.”
On average, the 48 respondents, not all of whom answer every question, expect the jobless rate will still be at 7.8% in June of next year—matching the September figure released last week. The reason for the stagnation in the job market is expectations for lackluster economic growth during the rest of 2012 and into 2013. Through the first half of next year, the average forecast is for growth in gross domestic product below 2% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate.
To be sure, the economists don’t see the U.S. falling into recession. They put just a 22% chance of another downturn hitting in the next 12 months. In fact, they put better odds—a 28% chance—that the economy will grow above 3% in 2013. But neither of those scenarios is seen as likely, and about two-thirds of the respondents say the risks remain more to the downside than upside.
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
full-year 2012: 1.7%
full-year 2013: 2.3%
full-year 2014: 2.9%
December 2012: 7.9%
December 2013: 7.6%
December 2014: 7.1%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2012: 1.83%
December 2013: 2.46%
December 2014: 3.15%
December 2012: 2.0%
December 2013: 2.1%
December 2014: 2.4%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2012: $91.31
for 12/31/2013: $93.84
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1428.59 as this post is written