Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The October Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of October 25, 2012:
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of 10/19/12 (incorporating data through 10/12/12) the WLI was at 126.7 and the WLI, Gr. was at 6.1%.
A chart of the WLI, Gr. since 2000, from Doug Short’s blog of October 19 titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Index Slips But Growth Rises” :
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting 10-13-10 to 10-13-12:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:
As per the October 18 release, the LEI was at 95.9 and the CEI was at 105.1 in September.
An excerpt from the October 18 release:
Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The U.S. LEI increased in September, more than offsetting the decline in August. The LEI has been signaling an economy that is fluctuating around a slow growth trend. The six-month growth rate has slowed substantially, but still remains in growth territory due to positive contributions from the housing and financial components. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index also increased in September.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of October 18 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Fluctuating Around a Slow-Growth Trend” :
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1417.94 as this post is written