America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Here is the most recent chart. This chart was last updated on January 19, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 1-13-12 on a weekly basis. The present …
The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 13, 2012. The headline is “Economists Split Over Additional Fed Action.” The commentary largely focuses on when, and if, the Federal Reserve will do another round of “bond purchases.” An excerpt from the article: Of the 22 economists who expect more bond buying …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Here is the most recent chart. This chart was last updated on January 5, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 12-30-11 on a weekly basis. The present level …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of December 22, 2011: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the December 1 update titled “Index …
The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 9, 2011. The headline is “Inflation Seen Outpacing Home Prices.” The commentary largely focuses on the housing market and when the economists polled believed it might recover. I found these excerpts regarding the housing market to be interesting, although I don’t agree with …
On March 28 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Here is the most recent chart. This chart was last updated on December 1, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 11-25-11 on a weekly basis. The present level …
On November 25, the Liberty Street Economics blog (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) published a post titled “The Failure to Forecast the Great Recession.” The post examines the inability of the New York Fed, as well as the vast majority of professional forecasters in general, to predict the “Great Recession.” It also mentions the …
On an intermittent basis I have commented on ECRI’s methodologies and its indices, including the WLI Growth. I include the WLI Growth in the monthly update of economic indicators. Although ECRI’s WLI Growth measure receives far greater attention, it should also be noted that there is a ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index) from which the …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of November 21, 2011: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the November 8 update titled “Index …