America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The Philadelphia Fed First Quarter 2012 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 10. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations: GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2012 : 2.3% full-year 2013 : 2.7% full-year 2014 : …
The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on February 13, 2012. The headline is “Rosier View Has Familiar Ring.” The commentary largely focuses on the economic forecasts of 2011 and their accuracy, as well as thoughts as to the economic characteristics of 2012. Additionally, within the article was a link that detailed …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on February 9, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 2-3-12 on a …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of January 26, 2012: – The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index: An excerpt from the January 3 update titled “Index …
On January 10, The Conference Board released its 4th Quarter CEO Confidence Survey. The overall measure of CEO Confidence was at 49, up from 42 in the third quarter. Notable excerpts from this January 10 Press Release include: Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “The bounce back in CEO Confidence in …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Here is the most recent chart. This chart was last updated on January 19, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 1-13-12 on a weekly basis. The present …
The January Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on January 13, 2012. The headline is “Economists Split Over Additional Fed Action.” The commentary largely focuses on when, and if, the Federal Reserve will do another round of “bond purchases.” An excerpt from the article: Of the 22 economists who expect more bond buying …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Here is the most recent chart. This chart was last updated on January 5, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 12-30-11 on a weekly basis. The present level …