The December 2012 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey

The December Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 17, 2012.  The headline is “Economy Poised to Nudge Ahead in 2013.”

Although I don’t agree with various aspects of the survey’s contents, I found numerous items to be notable, both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet.

A couple of  excerpts:

As 2012 comes to a close, the U.S. economy is also turning a page: The recovery is over. It looks like 2013 will be the start of a more normal, though hardly robust, period of growth.


But even with that looming threat, economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal put the odds of a recession next year at just 24%. Not coincidentally, those odds are closely aligned with the odds—26%—that the economists put on a standoff that allows the tax and spending policies to take effect. Get past the cliff, and most economists expect reasonably solid growth.

The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:


full-year 2012:  1.9%

full-year 2013:  2.3%

full-year 2014:  2.8%

full-year 2015:  2.9%

Unemployment Rate:

December 2012: 7.8%

December 2013: 7.5%

December 2014: 7.0%

10-Year Treasury Yield:

December 2012: 1.67%

December 2013: 2.26%

December 2014: 2.88%


December 2012:  2.1%

December 2013:  2.1%

December 2014:  2.3%

Crude Oil  ($ per bbl):

for 12/31/2012: $88.90

for 12/31/2013: $92.24

(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)


I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 1421.34 as this post is written