America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others …
The May NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 12, 2018. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Soars, Continuing Historic Run, Hitting Several Records in May.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased in May by 3 points to 107.8. Here are some excerpts that I find particularly …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The June 2018 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 7, 2018. The headline is “Most Forecasters See Modest Growth Boost From Bank-Regulation Rollback.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An excerpt: …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2018:Q1). The last value (as of the June 7, 2018 update) is $100.768344 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis: …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of June 7, 2018 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q1.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge image) As seen in …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 31, 2018 update (reflecting data through May 25, 2018) is -1.148. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …