Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of June 29, 2018

Doug Short’s site had a post of June 29, 2018 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment:  June Final Retreats Slightly“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of June 29, 2018

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – June 29, 2018 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from the Doug … Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – June 29, 2018 Update

Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. The post on the Doug Short site of June 28, 2018, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index … Read moreBroad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through May 2018

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through May 2018, updated on June 27, 2018. This value is $248,755 ($ Millions): (click on charts to … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through May 2018

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the June 21, 2018 update (reflecting data through June 15, 2018) is -1.149. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other … Read moreChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Updates Of Economic Indicators June 2018

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June 2018 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 25, 2018: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.15: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators June 2018

The U.S. Economic Situation – June 25, 2018 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, … Read moreThe U.S. Economic Situation – June 25, 2018 Update

Money Supply Charts Through May 2018

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM … Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through May 2018

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of … Read moreTrends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 “Bottom Up” EPS Forecasts Years 2018, 2019, And 2020

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of June 22, 2018, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, … Read moreS&P500 “Bottom Up” EPS Forecasts Years 2018, 2019, And 2020