Month: December 2017

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

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The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the December 21, 2017 update (reflecting data through December 15, 2017) is -1.527. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …

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Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of December 27, 2017

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Doug Short had a blog post of December 27, 2017 (“Consumer Confidence Retreated in December“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I find …

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The U.S. Economic Situation – December 22, 2017 Update

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Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …

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Money Supply Charts Through November 2017

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For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators December 2017

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Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The December 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of December 21, 2017: The CFNAI, with current reading of .15: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

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The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  Its reading as of the December 14, 2017 update (reflecting data through December 8, 2017) is -1.546. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …

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Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

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S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …

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S&P500 Bottom Up EPS Forecasts Years 2017, 2018 And 2019

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As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 23 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of December 18, 2017, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, …

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