America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The September 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 8, 2016. The headline is “Why So Few Economists Are Prepared to Say Recession Risks Are Fading.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 8, 2016 update (reflecting data through September 2) is -1.123. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
On September 6, 2016 Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Up in August as DNC Rally Persists.” Notable excerpts include: The Gallup U.S. Economic Confidence Index rose to a five-month high of -11 in August, up from -15 in July. This month’s four-point gain notwithstanding, the index remains well below its post-recession …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
In the September 5, 2016 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Beware the Bear.” Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2016 and 2017 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. Two excerpts from the article: Their mean expectation for the Standard …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through Friday’s (September 2, 2016) close, which had a closing value of 11.98. Here is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) …