In the September 5, 2016 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Beware the Bear.”
Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2016 and 2017 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields.
Two excerpts from the article:
Their mean expectation for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index is 2138 at year end, below Friday’s close of 2180. Four strategists call themselves bullish, three are in the bear camp, and three are neutral.
The average of strategists’ earnings-per-share estimates for the companies in the S&P is about $119 in 2016, down from a projected $123.50 last December and $129 in September 2015. That isn’t very different from the bottom-up industry analysts’ consensus of about $118, which is down from $132 some 12 months ago.
Of the eight strategists who provided 2017 S&P500 earnings estimates, the average is $125.88. The article also mentions that among the investment strategists, average expected 2016 GDP growth is 1.7% and 2.0% (from nine strategists’ forecasts) in 2017.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2186.48 as this post is written