America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 20 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of September 19, 2016, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 16, 2016: Year 2016 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $110.29/share …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 2Q 2016“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2016:Q2). The last value (as of the September 16, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of September 16, 2016 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q2.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge image) As seen in …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 8, 2016 update (reflecting data through September 2) is -1.123. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, September 13, 2016. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “Political Climate As Negative Factor Hits Record High In Monthly NFIB Index Of Small Business Optimism.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .2 points in August to 94.4. Here are some …
In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of that measure, with a current reading (updated …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …