America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The August 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 11, 2016. The headline is “Economists See Election-Induced Uncertainty Harming U.S. Economy.” As indicated in the article, 62 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question. I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with …
On August 10, 2016, the Zillow Q3 2016 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the Press Release: Overall, the experts surveyed predict home price appreciation across the country will be up over 4 percent year-over-year by the end of 2016. They expect home prices …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 4, 2016 update (reflecting data through July 29) is -1.13. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
In the last post (“Monthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payrolls – August 8, 2016“) I featured five long-term charts showing the monthly change in the Total Nonfarm Payrolls measure. While the monthly change in this measure, as well as the official Unemployment Rate (U-3), are the most prevalent statistics regarding employment and unemployment levels respectively, …
For reference purposes, below are five charts that display growth in payroll employment. Total nonfarm payrolls (data series PAYEMS, which is seasonally adjusted) is defined in Financial Reserve Economic Data [FRED] as: All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number of U.S. workers in the economy that …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …