Median Household Income Chart

I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his February 29, 2016 post titled “December Median Household Income at a New Post-Recession High” produced the chart below.  It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, … Read moreMedian Household Income Chart

Consumer Confidence Surveys – As Of February 26, 2016

Doug Short had a blog post of February 26, 2016 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment:  February Final Slightly Better Than Forecast“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts.  They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the … Read moreConsumer Confidence Surveys – As Of February 26, 2016

Broad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of February 26, 2016, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business … Read moreBroad-Based Indicators Of Economic Activity

Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through January 2016

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through January, updated on February 25, 2016. This value is $237,465 ($ Millions): (click on charts to enlarge … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through January 2016

House Prices Reference Chart

As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through December) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of February 23, 2016 titled “Real Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in December”: (click on chart to enlarge image) _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX … Read moreHouse Prices Reference Chart

The U.S. Economic Situation – February 24, 2016 Update

Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood.  While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, … Read moreThe U.S. Economic Situation – February 24, 2016 Update

Money Supply Charts Through January 2016

For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM … Read moreMoney Supply Charts Through January 2016

Updates Of Economic Indicators February 2016

Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The February 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 22, 2016: (current reading of +.28; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.15): – The ECRI WLI (Weekly … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators February 2016

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of … Read moreTrends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 2015, 2016 & 2017 EPS Estimates

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” (pdf) of February 18, 2016, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year … Read moreS&P500 2015, 2016 & 2017 EPS Estimates