America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of February 16, 2016: Year 2015 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $103.58/share …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the February 11, 2016 update (reflecting data through February 5) is -.472. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q4 2016 management call transcript (pdf) dated February 18, 2016. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q4 results(pdf)) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts are found under …
For reference purposes, the chart below shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index on a daily basis, since 2006, with price labels: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX at 1926.82 as …
On February 17, 2016, the Zillow Q1 2016 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Excerpts from the Press Release: Prices of newly constructed homes are at historic highs — the median price of new homes sold in December 2015 was almost 7 percent above the pre-recession peak …
As a reference, below is a monthly chart of Gold, Silver, the Gold:Silver ratio, and the S&P500, from January 1, 1980 through February 12, 2016 with price labels: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The Philadelphia Fed 1st Quarter 2016 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on February 12, 2016. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2016: 2.1% full-year 2017: 2.4% full-year 2018: …
In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of that measure, with a current reading (updated …
Yesterday (February 11, 2016) the yield on the 10-Year Treasury went below 1.60%, before closing at 1.644%. As a reference, here is a long-term chart of the 10-Year Treasury yield since 1980, depicted on a monthly basis, LOG scale, with price labels: (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation …