Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The February 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of February 22, 2016: (current reading of +.28; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.15):
The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of February 19, 2016 (incorporating data through February 12, 2016) the WLI was at 128.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at -3.1%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of February 19, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: Down from Last Week“:
The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through February 13, 2016:
The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the February 18, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Declined Slightly,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.2, the CEI was at 113.2, and the LAG was 120.0 in January.
An excerpt from the February 18 release:
“The U.S. LEI fell slightly in January, driven primarily by large declines in stock prices and further weakness in initial claims for unemployment insurance,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Despite back-to-back monthly declines, the index doesn’t signal a significant increase in the risk of recession, and its six-month growth rate remains consistent with a modest economic expansion through early 2016.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of February 18 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Decrease in January for Second Consecutive Month“:
I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1943.12 as this post is written