Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2013 & 2014 – As Of December 19, 2013

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 19, 2013: Year 2013 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $107.40/share …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – December 19, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on December 19, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to December 13, …

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Markets During Periods Of Federal Reserve Intervention – December 17, 2013 Update

In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of December 17 …

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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)

Each week I have been posting two charts of the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI), which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related issues, both from the Federal Reserve as well as …

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Corporate Bond Yields And OASs

I often write about interest rates and related topics as my analyses indicates that the overall bond market is an exceedingly large asset bubble. The characteristics and price levels of corporate bonds is highly noteworthy. For reference purposes, here are three bond indices and their FRED charts, as well as depictions of their spreads (as seen …

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2014 Estimates For S&P500 Earnings & Price Levels

In the December 16, 2013 edition of Barron’s, the cover story is titled “Bullish on 2014.” Included in the story, 10 investment strategists give various forecasts for 2014 including S&P500 profits, S&P500 year-end price targets, GDP growth, and 10-Year Treasury Note Yields. A couple of excerpts: THE 10 STRATEGISTS Barron’s consulted about the outlook for …

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Recession Probability Models

There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – December 12, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on December 12, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to December 6, …

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