America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The December 2013 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on December 12, 2013 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 31, 2013 1800.7 June 30, 2014 1841.1 Dec. 31, 2014 1875.0 Dec. 31, 2015 1948.5 These figures represent the median value across …
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released yesterday, December 10. The headline of the Press Release is “Small Business Optimism Sees Slight Bump in November.” The subtitle is “Few Positive Signs for the Future.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .9 points in November to 92.5. Here are some excerpts from the …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 3Q 2013“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2013:Q3). The last value (as of December 9, 2013) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of December 9, 2013 titled “Fed’s Q3 Flow of Funds: Household Mortgage Debt increased slightly, first Mortgage Debt increase since Q1 2008.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States” : (click …
On August 22, 2013 I wrote a post titled “The Impact Of Rising Interest Rates,” in which I discussed various wide-ranging impacts of the rising interest rate environment that I believe lack recognition. In this post, I would like to make additional comments regarding the future level of interest rates, and specifically the 10-Year Treasury …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his December 6 post titled “Real Median Household Incomes: Excruciatingly Slow and Erratic Improvement” produced the chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as depicted. …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 31st update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …