Durable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through January 2013

Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through January, last updated on February 27.  This value is 216,981 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge … Read moreDurable Goods New Orders – Long-Term Charts Through January 2013

Trends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates is a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report … Read moreTrends Of S&P500 Earnings Forecasts

House Prices Reference Chart

As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through December), from the CalculatedRisk blog post of February 26 titled “Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio” : (click on chart to enlarge image)   _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX … Read moreHouse Prices Reference Chart

Updates Of Economic Indicators February 2013

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The February Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of February 25, 2013: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 2/22/13 (incorporating data through 2/15/13) the WLI was at … Read moreUpdates Of Economic Indicators February 2013

S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2013 & 2014

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” of February 22, 2013, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts: Year 2013 estimate: $111.86/share … Read moreS&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2013 & 2014

Long-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – February 22, 2013 Update

As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, … Read moreLong-Term Charts Of The ECRI WLI & ECRI WLI, Gr. – February 22, 2013 Update

St. Louis Financial Stress Index – February 21, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on February 21, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to February 15, … Read moreSt. Louis Financial Stress Index – February 21, 2013 Update

Walmart’s Q4 2013 Results – Comments

I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q4 2013 earnings call transcript (pdf) dated January 21, 2013.  I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices.  I have previously commented on their quarterly conference call comments; these previous posts are found under the “paycheck to paycheck” tag. Here are various excerpts … Read moreWalmart’s Q4 2013 Results – Comments

Current Economic Situation

With regard to our current economic situation,  my thoughts can best be described/summarized by the posts found under the 21 “Building Financial Danger” posts. My thoughts concerning our ongoing economic situation – with future implications – can be seen on the page titled “A Special Note On Our Economic Situation,” which has been found near … Read moreCurrent Economic Situation

Excessive Positive Sentiment And Froth In The Stock Market

In this post I would like to highlight various areas which I believe indicate excessively positive sentiment and related measures indicating “froth” in the stock market. The stock market has had a remarkable “run” since roughly mid-November.  This is illustrated in a 1-year daily chart of the stock market (S&P500) : (click on chart to … Read moreExcessive Positive Sentiment And Froth In The Stock Market