On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief ninth update to that post.
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature.
I have written numerous posts of some of what I consider both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other highly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment that endangers the overall financial system.
My analysis continues to indicate that there are many reasons for tremendous concern, as seen in many fundamental economic, financial-market, and proprietary measures. While some “problem areas,” such as various aspects of the unemployment situation and the relatively anemic economic recovery/expansion are widely recognized, many other measures and immensely disconcerting trends lack recognition, some completely so.
Since my January 11 post I have been writing the following, which I continue to believe:
…my analyses indicate that the danger inherent in the financial system has reached a level at which a stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well – has reached a level at which a near-term crash is (at least) a significant concern.
(note: the “next crash” has outsized significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, “The Next Crash And Its Significance“)
As reference, below is a one-year daily chart of the S&P500, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels. The current price is 1382.20:
(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1382.20 as this post is written