EconomicGreenfield

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The August Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of August 23, 2010:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from August 16, 2010:

“The July 28 update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 2.5% in December. The end of government stimulus spending and inventory buildup combined with continuing high unemployment, a weak housing market, tight credit and high debt are behind the slowdown.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 8/13/10 the WLI was at 120.8 and the WLI, Gr. was at -10.0%.  A chart of the growth rates of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of August 2 was at 42.3, as seen below:

An excerpt from the August 2 Press Release:

“The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) has given an upbeat signal on the economy, registering its biggest rise since October and a return to the level of June 2008.”

also:

““The Dow Jones ESI’s rise suggests the prospects of a double dip recession have receded,” Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” Columnist Alen Mattich said. “The ESI is still at a very low level, just above where it has in the past signalled a drop into recession. The indicator, however, has been steadily climbing since April 2010 which implies continued economic improvement.”

also:

“The ESI’s back-testing to 1990 shows that the ESI clearly highlighted the risk that the U.S. economy was sliding into recession in 2001 and 2008 and suggests the indicator can help predict economic turning points as much as seven months in advance of other indicators.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, updated through 8-14-10:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As per the August 19 release, the LEI was at 109.8 and the CEI was at 101.4 in July.

An excerpt from the August 19, 2010 Press Release:

“”The indicators point to a slow expansion through the end of the year,” says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board.”

“New Financial Conditions Index”

I wrote a post concerning this index on 3/10/10.  There is currently no updated value available.

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

SPX at 1067.36 as this post is written

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The July Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of July 26, 2010:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from July 26, 2010:

“The July update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing to 2.5% in December. The end of government stimulus spending and inventory buildup combined with continuing high unemployment, a weak housing market, tight credit and high debt are behind the slowdown.

The index predicts future real GDP growth (gross domestic product, adjusted for inflation) based on 11 leading economic and financial indicators.

Four of the 11 indicators were positive in July, down from five last month and the lowest number since USA TODAY first published the index in June 2009.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 7/16/10 the WLI was at 120.17 and the WLI, Gr. was at -10.5%.  A chart of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of June 30 was at 40.3, as seen below:

An excerpt from the June 30 Press Release:

““The ESI’s modest and steady rise over the last couple of months is a positive sign, but the U.S. is not out of the woods yet,” Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” Columnist Alen Mattich said. “Anxiety about the U.S.’s employment conditions and questions around Europe’s stability are key concerns that are unlikely to subside soon.”

The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator aims to predict the health of the U.S. economy by analyzing the coverage of 15 major daily newspapers in the U.S. Using a proprietary algorithm and derived data technology, the ESI examines every article in each of the newspapers for positive and negative sentiment about the economy. The indicator is calculated through Dow Jones Insight, a media tracking and analysis tool. The technology used for the ESI also powers Dow Jones Lexicon, a proprietary dictionary that allows traders and analysts to determine sentiment, frequency and other relevant complex patterns within news to develop predictive trading strategies.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, updated through 7-17-10:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes:

As of July 22, the LEI was at 109.8 and the CEI was at 101.4 in June.

An excerpt from the June 22, 2010 Press Release:

“”The indicators point to slower growth through the fall,” says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board.”

“New Financial Conditions Index”

I wrote a post concerning this index on 3/10/10.  There is currently no updated value available.

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

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SPX at 1113.68 as this post is written

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:

The June Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of June 28, 2010:

The Consumer Metrics Institute Contraction Watch:

The USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index:

An excerpt from June 23, 2010:

“The June update of the USA TODAY/IHS Global Insight Economic Outlook Index shows real GDP growth, at a six-month annualized growth rate, slowing from 4.1% in April to 3.1% in November. Increased consumer and business equipment and software spending fueled strong growth in the spring, but tight credit, high debt and continuing high unemployment will slow growth in the second half of the year.”

The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):

As of 6/18/10 the WLI was at 122.9 and the WLI, Gr. was at -6.9%.  A chart of the Weekly Leading and Weekly Coincident Indexes:

An excerpt from a June 25 Reuters article: “”After falling for six weeks, the uptick in the level of the Weekly Leading Index suggests some tentative stabilization, but the continuing decline in its growth rate to a 56-week low underscores the inevitability of the slowdown,” said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.”

The Dow Jones ESI (Economic Sentiment Indicator):

The Indicator as of June 1 was at 39.4.  An excerpt from the June 1 Press Release:

““Overall, the ESI has been flat during recent months. This likely reflects the failure of a significant pickup in underlying employment trends and suggests that while the U.S. economy is no longer in recession, its recovery is subdued,” Dow Jones Newswires “Money Talks” Columnist Alen Mattich said. “The modest rise of the Dow Jones ESI in May is largely due to a reversal of April’s slight downward distortion caused by coverage of the Congressional inquiry into Goldman Sachs.”

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:

Here is the latest chart, updated through 6-19-10:

The Conference Board Leading (LEI) and Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, as of June 17, 2010:

The LEI was at 109.9 and the CEI was at 101.3 in May.

An excerpt from the June 17, 2010 Press Release:

““The LEI for the United States has been rising since April 2009, and though its growth rate has slowed in 2010, it is well above its most recent peak in December 2006,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board. “Correspondingly, current economic conditions, as measured by The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the United States, have been improving steadily since November 2009, thanks to gains in payroll employment and industrial production.”

“New Financial Conditions Index”

I had a post of this index on 3/10/10.  There is currently no updated value available.

_________

I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

back to <home>

SPX at 1041.24 as this post is written