EconomicGreenfield

I found the March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey contained three sets of interesting material.

First, it contained the survey results and comments of economists with regard to what impact interventions (The Federal Reserve’s actions as well as that of the ARRA) have played in “rescuing the U.S. economy from the financial crisis.”

Second, according to the survey, “…the economists put the odds of a double-dip recession at just 17%…”

Third, to the question “How confident are you that Congress and the president will act to reduce the long-term budget deficit before a major financial market crisis?” these responses were interesting:

“We usually do the right thing after having exhausted all other options.”

“Their record of fiscal discipline is horrific.”

Otherwise, the various forecast averages for such measures as the Ten-Year Treasury Yield, GDP and Unemployment Rate remain largely unchanged.  As seen in the detail, there hasn’t been material change in the average of these forecasted measures for months.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not agree with the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

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SPX at 1149.99 as this post is written

The February Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey can be found at this link.

There wasn’t much change in the survey results from last month.  Also, as seen in the detail, there hasn’t been much change for many of the parameters for the last few months.

As I have previously commented, I find it highly notable that there is such a “tight” consensus among the forecasters – especially for the major forecasting categories such as GDP and unemployment.

This is supported by the following from the survey:

“The White House released its economic forecast Thursday, projecting payrolls will increase by an average of just 95,000 a month this year with the unemployment rate averaging 10%. The Council of Economic Advisors expects GDP growth to be about 3% in 2010, in line with the surveyed economists.”

This survey also asked respondents to rate the economic performance of Ben Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Geithner and President Obama.  On a 1-100 scale, President Obama got an average score of 57, Treasury Secretary Geithner got an average score of 60, and Ben Bernanke got an average score of 78.

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as regular readers of this blog are aware, I do not agree with the consensus estimates or much of the accompanying commentary.

back to <home>

SPX at 1105.38 as this post is written

Here is the link to the latest (January) Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704363504575002700724430016.html

As seen in the survey details, there hasn’t been much change in expectations concerning full-year 2010 GDP or the Unemployment Rate for many months.  The average expectation is for a full-year GDP of 3.0% and Unemployment Rate for December 2010 of 9.5%.

Also, the economists put a 16% chance “that the economy will enter another recession in 2010.”

SPX at 1148.46 as this post is written