America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Here is a Wall Street Journal editorial from Monday: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703298004574459341050610398.html I found it interesting for two reasons. First, it has a chart that shows the actual Unemployment Rate vs. that forecast in “The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan.” Currently the Unemployment Rate is approximately 2% above the rate forecasted with the stimulus. Second, the editorial …
From time to time, I will write posts that contain the Unemployment Rate or various other job loss measures. I show these statistics as they are widely used and quoted by others. From my perspective, however, the methodology used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics does not provide an accurate depiction. There are a variety …
I would like to present an interesting chart on job losses. My last chart concerning job losses was posted on September 10. The commentary I presented there is still highly applicable to the latest unemployment numbers. This chart is from http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ from October 2. I like this chart as it presents a depiction of the relative severity …
I think the following chart is one that surely deserves attention: (click on chart image to enlarge) Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve It shows the Median Duration of Unemployment. One notices the trajectory of the chart during our current period of economic weakness. Although I have reservations as to how the data on this chart …
Businesses have reacted to the tumultuous economic conditions in many ways. A logical action has been to reduce cash outlays to a level appropriate to what the new economic conditions seemingly warrant. Along these lines, expenses have undergone scrutiny and in many cases have been cut, in order to preserve cash as well as improve profitability …
In addition to the adversity and financial strains suffered by firms during this period of economic weakness, there exists significant uncertainty on many fronts. As mentioned in the last post, many businesses would find any further economic weakness to pose a formidable challenge. Although economist forecasts are predicting a weak economic recovery from here, economic forecasts have proven less than accurate the last …
The economic weakness that has occurred has caused a significant amount of financial damage. This can be seen in a variety of indicators and statistics, such as widening credit spreads, defaults, credit downgrades, etc. These worsening conditions have been accompanied by a curtailed (in many cases severely) access to credit. Whereas credit and other types …
The economic weakness that accelerated in the latter months of 2008 and into 2009 played out in a very “tricky” fashion. Very few mainstream economists foresaw what would happen. A testament to the complexity of the situation as 2008 progressed was the business shows airing arguments during the summer as to whether the economy was even in …
“As unemployment approaches 10%, what is less well publicized is that the number of “underutilized” workers in the U.S. has increased dramatically from 15 to 30 million. Those without jobs, as well as those individuals who only work part-time and have become discouraged and stopped looking, total 30 MILLION people. The number is staggering.” -Bill …