America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
This post provides updated charts to the “Three Unemployment Charts” post of January 12. As I have commented previously, most notably in an October 6 post, in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction. However, I believe that the following charts …
On Thursday President Obama signed the HIRE Act, a jobs stimulus. The summary of the signing can be found here. There is also a transcript of his remarks found here. I could make many comments about this jobs stimulus. However, as an intervention measure, it has many of the same characteristics of other interventions. As …
Here are two charts from the Minneapolis Fed site: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/index.cfm They show, from a historical context, how declines in employment and output during this period of economic weakness (which FRB Minneapolis refers to as a recession) compare to those of previous recessions. First, the employment chart. Here are two notes regarding this chart: 1. Employment …
I found plenty of noteworthy comments in last night’s State of the Union Address. Here is the link to the transcript: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-state-union-address Here are a couple of my thoughts: First, many stimulus initiatives were mentioned. Some of these were new ideas. That stimulus ideas are proliferating should not be a surprise, as many in …
Occasionally, I have posted charts concerning unemployment. With Friday’s unemployment release, here are three charts that I find noteworthy: First, from the St. Louis Fed site, the Median Duration of Unemployment. Second, from the CalculatedRisk blog of 1/8/10, Unemployed Over 26 Weeks: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ Third, again from the CalculatedRisk blog of 1/8/10 – I like this chart …
Below is an article from The Detroit News of December 16 titled “Nearly half of Detroit’s workers are unemployed”. Among other things, Detroit’s economic situation seems to refute the theory, with which I vehemently disagree, that we as a nation do not “need” manufacturing in order to be successful. http://detnews.com/article/20091216/METRO01/912160374 back to <home> SPX at 1117.83 …
Ben Bernanke gave a speech on Monday at the Economic Club of New York. Here is the link: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20091116a.htm I found his comments on unemployment to be noteworthy: Here are some excerpts: “In addition to constrained bank lending, a second area of great concern is the job market. Since December 2007, the U.S. economy has …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRISK blog of November 8 http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/11/summary-and-look-ahead.html I like this chart as it presents a relative depiction of Post WWII recession job losses. As one can see, our current period of economic weakness’s job losses are outsized both in duration and severity: Here is a long-term view of the official stated Unemployment Rate. …
Here is a Wall Street Journal editorial from Monday: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703298004574459341050610398.html I found it interesting for two reasons. First, it has a chart that shows the actual Unemployment Rate vs. that forecast in “The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan.” Currently the Unemployment Rate is approximately 2% above the rate forecasted with the stimulus. Second, the editorial …
From time to time, I will write posts that contain the Unemployment Rate or various other job loss measures. I show these statistics as they are widely used and quoted by others. From my perspective, however, the methodology used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics does not provide an accurate depiction. There are a variety …