America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates on a quarterly basis. Currently, their estimates for 2010 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $81.72/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $71.32/share -From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $64.84/share Currently, their estimates for …
As seen in the chart below, the 50 day moving average (as seen in blue) for the VIX is now trending higher. This is the first time since March 2009 in which it has done so in a significant manner: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Of course, there are many different ways to measure volatility. Other …
I find last Thursday’s stock market plunge to be highly notable on several fronts. The temptation is to treat the event as a “fluke” or “one off” event that is inconsequential; it is especially tempting to do so when most of the damage was quickly reversed and, as of this writing, stock indices are again …
Over the last few months a notable divergence has occurred between the U.S. and Chinese stock markets. Two charts illustrate this divergence. The first shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis: chart courtesy of StockCharts.com The second chart shows a chart of FXI, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index. This chart …
Recent statistics indicate that the stock market capitalization as a percentage of GDP appears to again be over 100%. This is an elevated level from a historical perspective. I’ve written of this metric before in an article titled “Does Warren Buffett’s Market Metric Still Apply?” I feel that for many reasons this is an important …
The climb in the S&P500 has been notable over the last few sessions. According to SentimenTrader.com, through yesterday, “Yet another up day pushed the S&P 500 futures to its 10th straight gain, only the second time since their inception (01/15/87 was the other).” Here is a chart of the S&P500 price action of the last …
Tommorrow’s Barron’s cover story has forecasts provided by 12 strategists and investment managers. I would like to highlight their S&P500 earnings forecasts for 2010. As seen on page 28, the average of the 12 stated forecasts is $75.75. From what I have seen, this $75 level is very common among forecasters, and as such seems like the predominant forecast for …
In this post I would like to respond to a question that was raised in response to the final post (November 6) of my “Danger In The Markets?” series. The question raised was “What would have to occur before you considered moving bullish?” I will answer this question in the context of the general stock market …
Please note – some might find this post disturbing In this post I will summarize my thoughts on the markets, particularly the stock market. As has been the case since the Economic Crisis began, any stock market weakness will most likely be mirrored in a variety of other markets as well, such as commodities, credit, etc. …
For this last post of this blog series, I will comment on the VIX. As seen below, if one looks casually at the VIX daily chart, there doesn’t seem to be much to be concerned about: Chart Courtesy of StockCharts.com However, I would like to make a couple of observations. First, as one can …