America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 27, 2017 update (reflecting data through April 21, 2017) is -1.318. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Each month I have been highlighting various estimates of U.S. recession probabilities. The latest update was that of April 5, 2017, titled “Recession Probability Models – April 2017.” While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or the probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by these and other estimates, I do believe that the …
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 1st quarter of 2017, and were last updated as of April 28, 2017. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short’s “Q1 GDP Advance Estimate: Real GDP Drops to .7 percent, Disappoints Forecast” post of April 28, 2017, depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted. This chart reflects the Gross Domestic Product Q1 2017 Advance Estimate (pdf) of April 28, 2017: _________ I post various indicators and indices …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through March 2017, updated on April 27, 2017. This value is $238,713 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 20, 2017 update (reflecting data through April 14, 2017) is -1.309. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The April 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of April 24, 2017: The CFNAI, with current reading of .08: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 13, 2017 update (reflecting data through April 7, 2017) is -1.369. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …