America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 1, 2017 update (reflecting data through May 26, 2017) is -1.546. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 1, 2017 update (reflecting data through May 26, 2017) is -1.546. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through April 2017, updated on May 26, 2017. This value is $231,168 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 18, 2017 update (reflecting data through May 12, 2017) is -1.496. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 22, 2017: The CFNAI, with current reading of .49: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 11, 2017 update (reflecting data through May 5, 2017) is -1.451. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index (ADS Index) are two broad-based economic indicators that I regularly feature in this site. The short-term and long-term trends of each continue to be notable. Doug Short, in his blog post of May 11, 2017, titled “The Philly Fed ADS Index Business …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 4, 2017 update (reflecting data through April 28, 2017) is -1.427. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …