Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The March 2016 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of March 21, 2016: (current reading of -.29; current reading of CFNAI-MA3 is -.07):
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of March 18, 2016 (incorporating data through March 11, 2016) the WLI was at 131.6 and the WLI, Gr. was at -2.3%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s post of March 18, 2016, titled “ECRI Weekly Leading Index: WLI Up 1.0 From Last Week“:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through March 12, 2016:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the March 17, 2016 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased Slightly,” (pdf) the LEI was at 123.2, the CEI was at 113.3, and the LAG was 120.4 in February.
An excerpt from the March 17 release:
“The U.S. LEI increased slightly in February, after back-to-back monthly declines, but housing permits, stock prices, consumer expectations, and new orders remain sources of weakness,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “Although the LEI’s six-month growth rate has moderated considerably in recent months, the outlook remains positive with little chance of a downturn in the near-term.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s blog post of March 17 titled “Conference Board Leading Economic Index: Slight Increase in February“:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2045.41 as this post is written