America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the April 2017 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf) The subtitle is “Gaining Momentum?” One area of the report is Figure 1.20 on page 29. While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability of Deflation – I …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the April 6, 2017 update (reflecting data through March 31, 2017) is -1.363. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 30, 2017 update (reflecting data through March 24, 2017) is -1.32. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 23, 2017 update (reflecting data through March 17, 2017) is -1.329. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Many people believe that the Yield Curve is an important economic indicator. On March 1, 2010, I wrote a post on the issue, titled “The Yield Curve As A Leading Economic Indicator.” An excerpt from that post: On the NY Fed link above, they have posted numerous studies that support the theory that the yield …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through February 2017, updated on March 24, 2017. This value is $235,386 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
Throughout this site there are many charts of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators regarding consumer spending are especially notable. While many are still indicating significant growth, are these indicators accurately portraying the overall situation? Below are a small sampling of consumer spending charts that depict significant or at least stable …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 16, 2017 update (reflecting data through March 10, 2017) is -1.360. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …