On September 30, 2011 ECRI released a statement titled “U.S. Economy Tipping Into Recession.”
Since that time, Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI has reaffirmed that view in various interviews, such as that on February 26, parts of which I highlighted in the February 28 post titled “The Velocity Of Money – Comments And Charts.”
Yesterday, ECRI again reaffirmed their conclusion first made in the September 30 statement, that a U.S. recession is forthcoming. The statement is titled “Why Our Recession Call Stands.” Here are a few excerpts that I find most notable:
Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor, including those we make public, give us no other choice.
also: (note – USCI refers to ECRI’s U.S. Coincident Index)
But the point remains that the USCI, which summarizes the definitive coincident economic indicators – including jobs – indicates declining growth in the U.S. economy.
In spite of the efforts of monetary policy makers, actual U.S. economic growth has slowed, while WLI growth has barely budged from a two-and-a-half-year low.
The bigger question is, can unprecedented, concerted global monetary policy action repeal the business cycle? The objective coincident and leading indexes that we have always monitored are still telling us that it cannot.
I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with the commentary in such forecasts.
The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 1402.60 as this post is written