America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On August 24, 2023, the Zillow Q3 2023 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. Various Q3 2023 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey charts are available, including that seen below: As one can see from the above chart, the average expectation is that the residential real estate market, as depicted by the …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The August 2023 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of August 24, 2023. The CFNAI has a current reading of .12. The CFNAI-MA3 has a current reading of -.13. A …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through July 2023, updated on August 24, 2023. This value is $285,931 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 17, 2023 update (reflecting data through August 11, 2023) is -.6801: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of August …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of August 2, 2023, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of August 9, 2023: Year 2023 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $219.42/share …
The Philadelphia Fed 3rd Quarter 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 11, 2023. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2023: 2.1% full-year 2024: 1.3% full-year 2025: …