America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The September Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published today, September 16, 2011. The headline is “Economists Say That U.S. Recession Looks More Likely.” I found various aspects of the survey to be interesting, including the following excerpts: Economists see a one in three chance the U.S. will slip into recession over the next twelve …
On March 28 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the STLFSI (St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Here is the most recent chart. This chart was last updated on September 15, incorporating data from 12-31-93 to 9-9-11 on a weekly basis. The present level …
On September 13, Gallup released a poll titled “Upper-Income Americans’ Economic Confidence Shaken.” I find this poll interesting for a variety of reasons. A few excerpts of note: Upper-income Americans’ economic confidence was badly shaken in August, with 80% saying the economy is “getting worse,” up from 66% in July. This is the first month since …
In the September 20, 2010 post (“Real Median Household Income & Poverty Measures“) I highlighted the lack of significant long-term growth in Real Median Household Income. As I stated in that post: …Real Median Household Income has experienced anemic growth for decades. Doug Short, in his September 13 blog post titled “U.S. Household Incomes: A …
Yesterday saw the release of “Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States, 2010″ (pdf) from the U.S. Census Bureau. Real Median Household Income was $49,445 in 2010, as seen on page 5. On page 14, the Poverty Rate is seen at 15.1%, encompassing 46.2 million people. As seen on the chart on page …
On January 10 I wrote an article on the Seeking Alpha site titled “10 ‘Front and Center’ Problem Areas That Pose a Threat to the Economy.” From time to time I like to revisit this list as these threats remain very relevant to our current and future economic situation. The European Debt Crisis was listed …
Last night President Obama made an address before the Joint Session of Congress, with regard to the American Jobs Act. (also, for reference, a September 9 Bloomberg article titled “Obama Proposes $447 Billion Jobs Stimulus Plan.”) While I don’t agree with various parts of the speech, I do find the following to be notable: …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact …
As many are aware, Standard & Poors publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My previous posts concerning their estimates can be found in the under the S&P500 Earnings tag) Currently (as of September 2), their estimates for 2011 add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $98.58/share -From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of …
In the September 20, 2010 post (“Real Median Household Income & Poverty Measures“) I highlighted the lack of significant long-term growth in Real Median Household Income. As I stated in that post: …Real Median Household Income has experienced anemic growth for decades. Doug Short, in his August 30 blog post titled “U.S. Household Incomes: A …