America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through September 2024) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of November 26, 2024 titled “Case-Shiller : National House Price Index…“: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The November 2024 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of November 25, 2024: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.40: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of November …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of November 15, 2024, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of November 13, 2024: Year 2024 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $233.96/share …
The Philadelphia Fed 4th Quarter 2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on November 15, 2024. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2024: 2.7% full-year 2025: 2.2% full-year 2026: …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the November 14, 2024 update (reflecting data through November 8, 2024) is -.5700: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
On Thursday, November 7, 2024 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled November 2024 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript of …