America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Starting on May 3, 2010 I have written posts concerning the notable divergence that has occurred between the S&P500 and Chinese (Shanghai Composite) stock markets. The chart below illustrates this divergence; it shows the S&P500 vs. the Shanghai Composite on a daily basis, since 2006: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by …
This post is an update to that of April 5, 2012, titled “The Current Gold Price And Its Broader Implications.” Below is a chart similar to that displayed in the April 5 post: (click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author) – The above chart is depicted …
The April Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on April 12, 2013. The headline is “Economists View Recent Swoon as Mere Hiccup in Growth.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the Q&A found in the spreadsheet. Notable …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on April 11, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to April 5, …
I often write about interest rates and related topics as my analyses indicates that the overall bond market is an exceedingly large asset bubble. The characteristics and price levels of corporate bonds is highly noteworthy. For reference purposes, here are three bond indices and their FRED charts, as well as depictions of their spreads (as seen …
The April NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, April 9. The headline of the Press Release is “Small-Business Owner Optimism Cannot Be Sustained.” The subtitle is “After Three Months of Slow Growth, Owner Confidence is Heading the Wrong Direction Again.” The Index of Small Business Optimism declined 1.3 points in March to 89.5. …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 23rd update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …