America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 1st Quarter of 2013. As seen in page 2 of the report, “One hundred and six CFOs responded this quarter. More than 70% of the CFOs are from public companies, and 85% are from companies with more than $1B in annual revenue.” Here are some of …
In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of March 26 …
Doug Short had a blog post of March 26 (“Consumer Confidence Takes a Dive“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – There are a few aspects of the above charts that I …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through February, last updated on March 26. This value is 232,108 ($ Millions) : (click on charts to enlarge …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates is a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of …
As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” of March 26, 2013, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts: Year 2013 estimate: $112.23/share …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of March 21, 2013: Year 2013 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $111.16/share …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Doug Short, in his March 25 blog post, titled “Real Median Household Incomes: Down $590 in February” produced the chart below. It is based upon data from Sentier Research, and it shows both nominal and real median household incomes since 2000, as depicted. …
Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The March Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of March 25, 2013: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 3/22/13 (incorporating data through 3/15/13) the WLI was at …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …