America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As I have commented previously, as in the October 6, 2009 post (“A Note About Unemployment Statistics”), in my opinion the official methodologies used to measure the various job loss and unemployment statistics do not provide an accurate depiction; they serve to understate the severity of unemployment. However, even if one chooses to look at the …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through the latest daily closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, …
For reference purposes, below are two charts of the VIX from year 2000 through yesterday’s (February 4, 2015) close, which had a closing value of 18.33: Below is the VIX Weekly chart, depicted on a LOG scale, with the 13- and 34-week moving averages, seen in the cyan and red lines, respectively: (click on chart …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the January 29, 2015 update (reflecting data through January 23) is -.856. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
StockCharts.com maintains long-term historical charts of various major stock market indices, interest rates, currencies, commodities, and economic indicators. As a long-term reference, below are charts depicting various stock market indices for the dates shown. All charts are depicted on a monthly basis using a LOG scale. (click on charts to enlarge images)(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com) …
On February 3, 2015 Gallup released the poll results titled “Eight-Point Increase in Monthly Economic Confidence Index.” Notable excerpts include: Gallup’s U.S. Economic Confidence Index, which has been positive foreach of the past six weeks, finished January with an average score of +3 — the first time a monthly average has been in positive territory since …
U.S. Dollar weakness is a foremost concern of mine. As such, I have extensively written about it. I am very concerned that the actions being taken to “improve” our economic situation will dramatically weaken the Dollar. Should the Dollar substantially decline from here, as I expect, the negative consequences will far outweigh any benefits. The negative impact of a substantial …
For reference purposes, below is a chart from Doug Short depicting Real GDP, with a trendline, as depicted (the Gross Domestic Product Q4 2014 Advance Estimate (pdf) of January 30, 2015): _____ The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation SPX at 2000.80 as this post is written
Here are three charts from the St. Louis Fed depicting the velocity of money in terms of the MZM, M1 and M2 money supply measures. All charts reflect quarterly data through the 4th quarter of 2014, and were last updated as of January 30, 2015. As one can see, two of the three measures are at an …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …