Standard & Poor’s S&P500 Earnings Estimates For 2013 & 2014 – As Of August 15, 2013

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of August 15, 2013: Year 2013 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $108.41/share …

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Updates Of Economic Indicators August 2013

Here is an update on various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity.  These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The August 2013 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)(pdf) updated as of August 20, 2013: – The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index): As of 8/16/13 (incorporating data through 8/9/13) the WLI was …

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Philadelphia Fed – 3rd Quarter 2013 Survey Of Professional Forecasters

The Philadelphia Fed Third Quarter 2013 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 16.  This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2013 : 1.5% full-year 2014 : 2.6% full-year 2015: …

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Markets During Periods Of Federal Reserve Intervention – August 16, 2013 Update

In the August 9, 2011 post (“QE3 – Various Thoughts“) I posted a chart that depicted the movements of the S&P500, 10-Year Treasury Yield and the Fed Funds rate spanning the periods of various Federal Reserve interventions since 2007. For reference purposes, here is an updated chart from Doug Short’s blog post of August 17 …

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St. Louis Financial Stress Index – August 15, 2013 Update

On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the  St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system.  For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below.  This chart was last updated on August 15, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to August 9, …

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Walmart’s Q2 2014 Results – Comments

I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q2 2014 earnings call transcript (pdf) dated August 15, 2013.  I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices.  I have previously commented on their quarterly conference call comments; these previous posts are found under the “paycheck to paycheck” tag. Here are various excerpts …

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Measuring QE’s Impact

I have written extensively about Quantitative Easing (QE) and Interventions as I believe many aspects of these practices lack recognition and understanding.   My analyses indicate that QE (also referred to as “Large-Scale Asset Purchases” (LSAPs)) in general carries an array of risks, detrimental impacts, and unintended consequences.  It has complex impacts on the economy and markets. Over time, …

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NFIB Small Business Optimism – August 2013

The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, August 13.  The headline of the Press Release is “Small-Business Optimism? Not So Much.”  The subtitle is “July Index Increases Marginally.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased .6 points in July to 94.1. Here are some excerpts from the Press Release that I find …

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