America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
On September 10 the September Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey (pdf) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts: In the next year, earnings are expected to increase by about 13 percent among public U.S. …
The October NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, October 8. The headline of the Press Release is “Small Businesses Skeptical About Future; Optimism Dips.” The subtitle is “Too early to measure impact of the ‘shut-down’ but economic outlook is depressed.” The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased .2 points in September to 93.9. …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 29th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
On October 1, Gallup released the poll results titled “U.S. Economic Confidence Dips During Budget Battle.” The subtitle is “Index falls to -19 in September from -13 in August.” Notable excerpts include: As the fiscal battles in Washington intensified last month and the federal government inched closer to its first shutdown in 17 years, Americans’ confidence …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. The movement of the ECRI WLI and WLI, …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
On March 28, 2011 I wrote a post (“The STLFSI“) about the St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) which is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. For reference purposes, the most recent chart is seen below. This chart was last updated on October 3, incorporating data from December 31,1993 to September 27, …
In the March 9, 2012 post (“Charts of Equities’ Performance Since March 9, 2009 And January 1, 1980“) I highlighted two charts for reference purposes. Below are those two charts, updated through yesterday’s closing price. The first is a daily chart of the S&P500 (shown in green), as well as five prominent (AAPL, IBM, WFM, SBUX, …
I have written extensively about how my analyses indicate the existence of many asset bubbles. These asset bubbles, and their dynamics, pose a great danger to investors, especially during times of heavy selling pressures and concomitant liquidation that accompanies significant market distress. My analyses indicate that these heavy selling pressures will be especially high during …