America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 12, 2015 update (reflecting data through March 6) is -1.062. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
One of my ongoing concerns is the level and future resiliency of the U.S. Dollar. For reference, below is a chart that I find notable. It provides a comparison of the Euro (on the top plot) to the Dollar (found on the bottom plot) on a daily basis over the last five years: (chart courtesy …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The March Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on March 12, 2015. The headline is “WSJ Survey: Economists See Dollar Strength, Global Weakness Restraining U.S. Growth.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. Two …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 4Q 2014“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1949:Q4 to 2014:Q4). The last value (as of March 12, 2015) …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk blog post of March 12, 2015 titled “Fed’s Q4 Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth at Record High.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge image) As …
On March 11, 2015 the March Duke/CFO Magazine Global Business Outlook Survey (pdf) was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO Survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts: About 70 percent of U.S. companies indicate that wages are starting to outpace inflation. …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the March 5, 2015 update (reflecting data through February 27) is -1.045. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
On October 17, 2011 I wrote a post titled “Danger Signs In The Stock Market, Financial System And Economy.” This post is a brief 46th update to that post. My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …