America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
I found various notable items in Walmart’s Q2 2017 management call transcript (pdf) dated August 18, 2016. (as well, there is Walmart’s press release of the Q2 results and related presentation materials) I view Walmart’s results and comments as particularly noteworthy given their retail prominence and focus on low prices. I have previously commented on their quarterly management call comments; these previous posts …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 11, 2016 update (reflecting data through August 5) is -1.068. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
The Philadelphia Fed 3rd Quarter 2016 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released on August 12, 2016. This survey is somewhat unique in various regards, such as it incorporates a longer time frame for various measures. The survey shows, among many measures, the following median expectations: Real GDP: (annual average level) full-year 2016: 1.5% full-year 2017: 2.3% full-year 2018: …
In the October 6, 2015 post (“Comparisons Of Economic And Financial Aspects – 2008 And 2015“) I discussed credit spreads and featured a chart of the spread between Moody’s Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond and the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity. For reference, here is an updated long-term chart of that measure, with a current reading (updated …
The August 2016 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on August 11, 2016. The headline is “Economists See Election-Induced Uncertainty Harming U.S. Economy.” As indicated in the article, 62 economists were surveyed, although not every economist answered every question. I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with …
On August 10, 2016, the Zillow Q3 2016 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the Press Release: Overall, the experts surveyed predict home price appreciation across the country will be up over 4 percent year-over-year by the end of 2016. They expect home prices …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the August 4, 2016 update (reflecting data through July 29) is -1.13. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other related …
In the last post (“Monthly Changes In Total Nonfarm Payrolls – August 8, 2016“) I featured five long-term charts showing the monthly change in the Total Nonfarm Payrolls measure. While the monthly change in this measure, as well as the official Unemployment Rate (U-3), are the most prevalent statistics regarding employment and unemployment levels respectively, …