October 2016 IMF Report – Probabilities Of Recession And Deflation

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently published the October 2016 “World Economic Outlook.” (pdf)  The subtitle is “Subdued Demand.”

One area of the report is Figure 1.20 on page 30.  While I do not agree with the current readings of the two measures presented – Probability of Recession and the Probability of Deflation – I do find them to be notable, especially as one can compare these estimates across various global economies.

As one can see, the report states that the U.S. is estimated to have a roughly 22% probability of recession and roughly a 2% probability of deflation for the periods indicated.


I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this blog are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.


The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2150.52 this post is written