America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 8, 2017 update (reflecting data through June 2, 2017) is -1.58. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
This post provides an update to various past posts discussing deflation and “deflationary pressures,” including the most recent post, that of June 28, 2016 titled “U.S. Deflation – June 28, 2016 Update.” I have extensively written of “deflationary pressures” and deflation as I continue to believe that prolonged and deep U.S. deflationary conditions are …
The May NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, June 13, 2017. The headline of the Small Business Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Continues Remarkable Surge.” The Index of Small Business Optimism was unchanged in May at 104.5. Here are some excerpts that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): …
While I do not agree with the current readings of the measure – I think the measure dramatically understates the probability of deflation, as measured by the CPI – the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains an interesting data series titled “Deflation Probabilities.” As stated on the site: Using estimates derived from Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities …
The June 2017 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 8, 2017. The headline is “Unresolved U.S. Debt Ceiling Casts a Shadow Over Many Forecasters’ Economic Outlooks.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
In the last post (“Total Household Net Worth As A Percent Of GDP 1Q 2017“) I displayed a long-term chart depicting Total Household Net Worth as a percentage of GDP. For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2017:Q1). The last value (as of the June 8, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of June 8, 2017 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth increased in Q1.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart to enlarge image) As seen in …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts in this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematic conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 1, 2017 update (reflecting data through May 26, 2017) is -1.546. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …