America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others depict (or imply) various degrees of weak growth or economic contraction. Below are a small sampling of charts that depict …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Doug Short’s …
Doug Short had a blog post of September 29, 2017 (“Michigan Consumer Sentiment: September Final Down from August“) in which he presents the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and Thomson/Reuters University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – There are a few aspects of the above charts …
Perhaps the key issue surrounding the U.S. and global financial system is whether the embedded risk in the system has decreased or increased, especially since the Financial Crisis. There have been much regulation and many other financial reforms made since the Financial Crisis. These reforms, as well as other factors such as the protracted period …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 21, 2017 update (reflecting data through September 15, 2017) is -1.533. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and other …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through August 2017, updated on September 27, 2017. This value is $232,798 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 25, 2017: The CFNAI, with current reading of -.31: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds. Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM …
Many people believe that the Yield Curve is an important economic indicator. On March 1, 2010, I wrote a post on the issue, titled “The Yield Curve As A Leading Economic Indicator.” An excerpt from that post: On the NY Fed link above, they have posted numerous studies that support the theory that the yield …
On September 8, 2017 the September 2017 Duke/CFO Global Business Outlook was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In this CFO survey, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: The survey has been conducted for 86 consecutive …