Here is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts:
The September 2017 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 25, 2017:
The CFNAI, with current reading of -.31:
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index [CFNAI], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, September 25, 2017;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CFNAI
The CFNAI-MA3, with current reading of -.04:
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The ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index):
As of September 22, 2017 (incorporating data through September 15, 2017) the WLI was at 143.4 and the WLI, Gr. was at 0%.
A chart of the WLI,Gr., from Doug Short’s ECRI update post of September 22, 2017:
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The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions (ADS) Index:
Here is the latest chart, depicting the ADS Index from December 31, 2007 through September 16, 2017:
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The Conference Board Leading (LEI), Coincident (CEI) Economic Indexes, and Lagging Economic Indicator (LAG):
As per the September 21, 2017 press release, titled “The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased in August” (pdf) the LEI was at 128.8, the CEI was at 115.8, and the LAG was 125.2 in August.
An excerpt from the release:
“The August gain is consistent with continuing growth in the U.S. economy for the second half of the year, which may even see a moderate pick up,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “While the economic impact of recent hurricanes is not fully reflected in the leading indicators yet, the underlying trends suggest that the current solid pace of growth should continue in the near term.”
Here is a chart of the LEI from Doug Short’s Conference Board Leading Economic Index update of September 21, 2017:
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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 2492.49 as this post is written