America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 12, 2019: Year 2019 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $161.56/share …
The September 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 12, 2019. The headline is “Economists Don’t See Path to 3% Growth in 2019.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section. An excerpt: …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. At this time, the readings of various indicators are especially notable. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. While many U.S. economic indicators – including GDP – are indicating economic growth, others …
On January 9, 2017 I wrote a post (“Low Interest Rates And The Formation Of Asset Bubbles“) that mentioned the “Taylor Rule.” As discussed in that post – and for other reasons – the level of the Fed Funds rate – and whether its level is appropriate – has vast importance and far-reaching consequences with …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 5, 2019 update (reflecting data through August 30, 2019) is -1.266. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
On September 10, 2019, the Zillow Q3 2019 Home Price Expectations Survey results were released. This survey is done on a quarterly basis. An excerpt from the press release: The average panel-wide projections mask significant differences of opinion among individual experts who participated in the survey. For example, the most optimistic quartile of panelists expects home values …
The August NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, September 10, 2019. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Remains Steady…” The Index of Small Business Optimism decreased in August by 1.6 points to 103.1. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): The …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …