The September 2019 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on September 12, 2019. The headline is “Economists Don’t See Path to 3% Growth in 2019.”
I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” section.
An excerpt:
The Trump administration’s goal of achieving economic growth of 3% or better is looking increasingly remote this year, according to forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.
Private-sector economists surveyed in recent days expect U.S. gross domestic product to expand an inflation-adjusted 2.2% this year on average, measured from the fourth quarter a year earlier. Forecasters expect economic growth will slow to 1.7% in 2020 and will be 1.9% in 2021.
As seen in the “Recession Probability” section, the average response as to the odds of another recession starting within the next 12 months was 34.79%. The individual estimates, of those who responded, ranged from 10% to 67%. For reference, the average response in August’s survey was 33.57%.
As stated in the article, the survey’s 60 respondents were academic, financial and business economists. Not every economist answered every question. The survey was conducted September 6 – September 10, 2019.
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Economic Forecasts
The current average forecasts among economists polled include the following:
GDP:
full-year 2019: 2.20%
full-year 2020: 1.68%
full-year 2021: 1.85%
full-year 2022: 1.99%
Unemployment Rate:
December 2019: 3.67%
December 2020: 3.87%
December 2021: 4.09%
December 2022: 4.13%
10-Year Treasury Yield:
December 2019: 1.69%
December 2020: 1.97%
December 2021: 2.24%
December 2022: 2.41%
CPI:
December 2019: 2.01%
December 2020: 2.01%
December 2021: 2.15%
December 2022: 2.10%
Crude Oil ($ per bbl):
for 12/31/2019: $56.58
for 12/31/2020: $56.45
for 12/31/2021: $58.41
for 12/31/2022: $58.36
(note: I highlight this WSJ Economic Forecast survey each month; commentary on past surveys can be found under the “Economic Forecasts” category)
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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored. However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.
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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation
SPX at 3009.57 as this post is written