America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Today’s (May 28, 2020) GDP release (Q1 2020, Second Estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (preliminary estimate) for the 1st Quarter. Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits. For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through April 2020, updated on May 28, 2020. This value is $169,966 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
As a reference for long-term house price index trends, below is a chart, updated with the most current data (through March) from the CalculatedRisk blog post of May 26, 2020 titled “Case-Shiller : National House Price Index increased 4.4% in March“: _________ I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The May 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of May 26, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of -16.74: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 2nd Quarter of 2020. As seen in page 3 of the report, there were 147 survey respondents. As stated: “Each quarter (since 2Q10), CFO Signals has tracked the thinking and actions of CFOs representing many of North America’s largest and most influential companies. All respondents are …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the May 14, 2020 update (reflecting data through May 8, 2020) is .6123. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
Jerome Powell gave an interview to “60 Minutes”, which was broadcast Sunday (May 17, 2020) night. The video of the Interview and transcript can be seen at “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell On The Coronavirus-Ravaged Economy.” Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable in the order they appear in the transcript. (Please note …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of May …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of May 18, 2020, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …