America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The June 2020 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of June 22, 2020: The CFNAI, with current reading of 2.61: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the MZM (Money Zero Maturity), defined in FRED as the following: M2 less small-denomination time deposits plus institutional money funds.Money Zero Maturity is calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Here is the “MZM Money …
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of June …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of June 17, 2020, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of June 4, 2020: Year 2020 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $109.71/share …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the June 11, 2020 update (reflecting data through June 5, 2020) is -.3833. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …
The June 2020 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on June 12, 2020 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: June 30, 2020 3050.0 Dec. 31, 2020 3117.50 June 30, 2021 3215.0 Dec. 31, 2021 3280.0 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
The June 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on June 11, 2020. The headline is “WSJ Survey: U.S. Recovery From Pandemic Shock to Begin by Third Quarter.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2020:Q1). The last value (as of the June 11, 2020 update) is $110.787238 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …