America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of June 11, 2020 titled “Fed Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Decreased $7.4 Trillion in Q1.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart …
On Wednesday, June 10, 2020 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled June 2020 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. economy …
The May NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released yesterday, June 9, 2020. The headline of the Economic Trends report is “Small Business Optimism Index Rebounds from April, Earnings Trends Decline.” The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by 3.5 points to 94.4. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily …
While there has been an official declaration of U.S. recession on June 8, 2020 (as discussed in the “Recession Declared For The United States By The NBER BCDC” post), the following discussion is warranted for many reasons. Among the reasons is that two of the measures mentioned below are “forward-looking” in nature. There are a …
Yesterday (June 8, 2020) the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) declared a recession. This announcement is seen on the NBER page titled “Determination of the February 2020 Peak in US Economic Activity.” An excerpt: The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …
I have written many blog posts concerning the worrisome trends in income and earnings. Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings. While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic …
Shortly after each monthly employment report I have been posting a continual series titled “3 Critical Unemployment Charts.” Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well. For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective. Both charts are from the St. …