America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
As I stated in my July 12, 2010 post (“ECRI WLI Growth History“): For a variety of reasons, I am not as enamored with ECRI’s WLI and WLI Growth measures as many are. However, I do think the measures are important and deserve close monitoring and scrutiny. Below are three long-term charts, from Advisor Perspectives’ …
The December 2020 Livingston Survey (pdf) published on December 18, 2020 contains, among its various forecasts, a S&P500 forecast. It shows the following price forecast for the dates shown: Dec. 31, 2020 3600.00 June 30, 2021 3650.00 Dec. 31, 2021 3745.00 Dec. 31, 2022 3899.20 These figures represent the median value across the forecasters on the survey’s panel. …
On Wednesday, December 16, 2020 FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell gave his scheduled December 2020 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the …
In past posts I have commented about hunger and what is called “food insecurity” issues, which increased significantly during and after the Financial Crisis. In 2020, the economic decline has led to a substantial increase in hunger and “food insecurity.” Unfortunately, due to various factors it is difficult to get accurate and timely information on …
U.S. Economic Indicators Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various measures and near-term projections, the U.S. economy …
The December 2020 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey was published on December 11, 2020. The headline is “U.S. Recovery Will Cool Further Before Getting Vaccine Boost, WSJ Survey Shows.” I found numerous items to be notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – both within the article and in the “Economist Q&A” …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2020:Q3). The last value (as of the December 10, 2020 update) is $123.519725 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of December 10, 2020 titled “Fed Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $3.8 Trillion in Q3.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: (click on chart …
Recently Deloitte released their “CFO Signals” “High-Level Summary” report for the 4th Quarter of 2020. As seen in page 3 of the report, there were 148 survey respondents. As stated: “Each quarter (since 2Q10), CFO Signals has tracked the thinking and actions of CFOs representing many of North America’s largest and most influential companies. All respondents are …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI2) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the December 3, 2020 update (reflecting data through November 27, 2020) is -.6546. Of course, there are a variety of other measures and indices that are supposed to measure financial stress and …