America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
Advisor Perspectives had a post of September 30, 2025 (“Consumer Confidence Drops to 5-Month Low in September“) that displays the latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index charts. They are presented below: (click on charts to enlarge images) – – While I don’t believe that confidence surveys should be overemphasized, I …
For reference, below is a chart of the St. Louis Fed Price Pressures Measures – Deflation Probability [FRED STLPPMDEF] through September 2025. While I do not necessarily agree with the current readings of the measure, I view this as a proxy of U.S. deflation probability. A description of this measure, as seen in FRED: This …
Many people place emphasis on Durable Goods New Orders as a prominent economic indicator and/or leading economic indicator. For reference, below are two charts depicting this measure. First, from the St. Louis Fed site (FRED), a chart through August 2025, updated on September 25, 2025. This value is $312,059 ($ Millions): (click on charts to …
On September 24, 2025 The CFO Survey was released. It contains a variety of statistics regarding how CFOs view business and economic conditions. In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them: The outlook for the U.S. economy among financial decision-makers improved …
For reference purposes, below are two sets of charts depicting growth in the money supply. The first shows the M1, defined in FRED as the following: Before May 2020, M1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks (excluding those …
Perhaps the main reason that I write of our economic situation is that I continue to believe, based upon various analyses, that our economic situation is in many ways misunderstood. While no one likes to contemplate a future rife with economic adversity, current and future economic problems must be properly recognized and rectified if high-quality, …
The following is an update of various indicators that are supposed to predict and/or depict economic activity. These indicators have been discussed in previous blog posts: The September 2025 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) updated as of September 22, 2025: The CFNAI, with a current reading of -.12: source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National …
On September 18, 2025, the Business Roundtable released its CEO Economic Outlook Survey for the 3rd Quarter of 2025. Notable excerpts from this release, titled “Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index Posts Slight Gain, Still Lagging Historically“: The overall Index edged up slightly by seven points from last quarter to 76, still below its historic …
On Wednesday, September 17, 2025 FOMC Chair Jerome Powell gave his scheduled September 2025 FOMC Press Conference. (link of video and related materials) Below are Jerome Powell’s comments I found most notable – although I don’t necessarily agree with them – in the order they appear in the transcript. These comments are excerpted from the “Transcript …
The St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index (STLFSI4) is one index that is supposed to measure stress in the financial system. Its reading as of the September 17, 2025 update (reflecting data through September 12, 2025) is -.5655: source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index [STLFSI4], retrieved from FRED, …