America's Economic Future – A Discussion By Ted Kavadas
S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time. FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings. For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of September …
As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My other posts concerning S&P earnings estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of September 12, 2025, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the …
As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500. (My posts concerning their estimates can be found under the S&P500 Earnings tag) For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 9, 2025: Year 2025 estimates add to the following: -From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $258.25/share -From …
For reference purposes, here is Total Household Net Worth from a long-term perspective (from 1945:Q4 through 2025:Q2). The last value (as of the September 11, 2025 update) is $176.29290 Trillion: (click on each chart to enlarge image) – Also of interest is the same metric presented on a “Percent Change from a Year Ago” basis, …
The following chart is from the CalculatedRisk post of September 11, 2025 titled “Fed’s Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $7.1 Trillion in Q2.” It depicts Total Household Net Worth as a Percent of GDP. The underlying data is from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 report, “Financial Accounts of the United States“: As seen in …
Throughout this site there are many discussions of economic indicators. This post is the latest in a series of posts indicating facets of U.S. economic weakness or a notably low growth rate. The level and trend of economic growth is especially notable at this time. As seen in various sources, recession estimates have been at elevated levels. As seen …
The August 2025 NFIB Small Business Optimism report was released today, September 9, 2025. The Index of Small Business Optimism increased by .5 points to 100.8. Here is an excerpt that I find particularly notable (but don’t necessarily agree with): The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in August to 100.8, nearly 3 points above …
My overall analysis indicates a continuing elevated and growing level of financial danger which contains many worldwide and U.S.-specific “stresses” of a very complex nature. I have written numerous posts on this site concerning both ongoing and recent “negative developments.” These developments, as well as other exceedingly problematical conditions, have presented a highly perilous economic environment …
There are a variety of economic models that are supposed to predict the probabilities of recession. While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored. Please note that each of these models is …
In the November 13, 2013 post (“Not In Labor Force Statistic“) I featured editorial commentary from the Wall Street Journal, as well as an accompanying long-term chart, with regard to the number of people not working. Also, on February 9, 2015 I wrote another post titled “Unemployment And The ‘Not In Labor Force’ Statistic,” in …